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2023 Agent Predictions Survey


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2023 Agent Predictions Survey
Written By: Linda Nelson ~ 12/29/2022


Here are the key trends to watch for in 2023, according to an online survey of more than 440 Compass agents nationwide.

National Market Dynamics: Sales, Prices, Rates, Rents & Inventory
The rapid market slowdown of the past six months is predicted to largely level off in 2023.

  • 62% said they predict there to be somewhat or much fewer home sales in 2023 compared to 2022. But 68.3% said they predict annual U.S. home price growth to decline only modestly or stay about the same as in 2022.

  • 71.5% said they predict inventory to stay at current levels or increase somewhat. 75.8% said they expect the same of national rent levels.

  • 61.6% said they predict average rates to end 2023 between 5% and 6%, down from 2022 highs exceeding 7%

Market Demographics: Buyers vs Sellers & First-Timers vs Repeat Buyers
The market’s balance of power is predicted to shift towards buyers for the first time in years, but first-time buyers are likely to continue to struggle

  • 86.6% said they predict a balanced national housing market or one tilted in buyers’ favor in 2023.

  • 74.6% said they predict the share of first-time buyers – which fell to a record low in 2022 – to stay at low levels or decline further.

  • 80.8% said they predict the share of buyers aged 55-74 – which hit a record high in 2022 – to stay the same or rise next year.

Where & How We Live: Urban vs Suburban Living
Urban living, condos and shared amenities will all be more popular in 2023

  • A majority of agents agree – As affordability challenges continue, the pandemic fades, cities regain their luster and more companies begin to require employees to return to the office more regularly, condos will experience a resurgence in popularity in 2023.

  • The number of respondents that said urban living would grow in popularity was 44.1% higher than the number that said it would fade.

  • The number of respondents saying shared community amenities – community centers, pools, tennis/pickleball courts, etc. – would grow in popularity was more than triple the number that said those amenities would fade in popularity.

  • 49.1% more respondents said large yards would fade in popularity than said they would be more popular.

Thanks for reading!  Reach out to discuss what today's market means for you.

Linda Nelson - Broker

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